🔗 Share this article

It was 60 days ago that the young forward stood on the Sunderland turf, appearing bewildered as Unai Emery scolded him over failing to anticipate a penetrating pass. Back then, as Villa failed to win in six, doubts remained whether his performances were an indicator or the source for Villa's more general malaise.

“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”

In the latest match, in contrast, the manager's outburst was entirely much more joyous. When the England international swept in his second strike to restore the lead for Villa, the Spanish tactician ripped off his jacket, threw his arms wide and shouted in triumph. Villa continued to a 10th successive win , after failing to win any of their first six games, are somehow only three points behind table-toppers Arsenal.

Are They Genuine Title Contenders?

This is a particularly tough question to answer. History, a general sense of the club, argues against it. Furthermore, they've rarely been wholly dominant during this run, even as the victories have piled up.

According to statistical analysis, in only two games has the team posted an xG significantly higher than the opposition. For a club that have strung together a ten-match winning streak, the Villans look curiously susceptible – yet right now the fine lines are going in their favour.

The Winning Formula

The prevailing tactic appears to be to trade blows with rivals before hoping Rogers to save the day with two precise efforts. It happened at Leeds, it occurred in London, and again when facing United.

Rogers' first goal originated from a brilliant finish, curled precisely inside the goal frame from the corner of the box. His brace-completing goal acted as a slightly less clean iteration of goal number one as he pounced on a pass from Watkins.

“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”

Is It Sustainable?

Reason suggests otherwise. In the recent win, the opposition managed a greater number of attempts and more shots on target. The team has triumphed in eight consecutive games by just one goal. They have allowed goals in all but one of those fixtures.

Regression to the mean may well be the greatest opponent the club must confront over the coming weeks. Their key man, surely, will not continue to blasting the ball into the top corner forever.

A Case for Belief

Could it be a different scenario where, rather than results trending towards performances, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Important figures might still rediscover their best form.

• The centre-forward may begin to scoring again.
• The attacking talent could transform into the force he showed during his peak.
• The defensive duo are set to return from injury, fortifying a sometimes shaky defence.

Perhaps there is in that the seeds of a genuine bid, but they surely can continue to depend solely on one man.

Relishing the Unlikely

Yet, this is a surprise. It seemed improbable the team would be in a Champions League place in December. And without a doubt back in October, nobody thought Rogers by the end of the year would be spearheading a title charge and appearing as a vital Three Lions star.

This remarkable period must be cherished for the very reason that it appears so improbable. As the hero positioned himself before the North End when the game ended conducting the cheers, he seemed to be thoroughly enjoying it. Which he fully merits. These spells do not happen often and must be appreciated.