Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that divided the nation and triggered turmoil, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has taken place in academia but very few elected officials or activists want to engage with even the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unification or the existing arrangement. They composes two essays that aim for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and social statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, taxes, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented the writer. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the idea that there might be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate claim they favour unification but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he commented. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will eventually not succeed but all factions has possesses valuable insights to gain from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster must engage with the debate, said O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
