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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that a framework for a peace deal developed with US officials are poised to be completed in a matter of days. Following this, American envoys will present the terms to the Russian leadership.

Berlin Talks Yield Major Headway, With Critical Obstacles Remain

After two days of discussions in Berlin, American negotiators reported on Monday that around “90%” of the contentious issues between Moscow and Kyiv had been settled. Despite this optimistic assessment, the path to ending the war remains uncertain, particularly because the Russian lack of participation from the current dialogue.

Early Tuesday morning, the Ukrainian president said that the US Congress was anticipated to consider defense assurances and that a finalised set of documents might be ready “imminently.” Subsequently, the United States would hold consultations with Russian representatives, leading to summit-level talks possibly this weekend.

Security Guarantees and Allied Backing

“The plan involves five key agreements. Several pertain to security guarantees: formally ratified, that is, voted on and endorsed by the US Congress,” the president commented to the press. He stated that these assurances would “reflect article 5” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

Earlier, American representatives declined to give precise information regarding the likely contents of the security package or the consequences if Moscow attempted to seize more land following an agreement. They did, however, confirm that the U.S. has no plans to place boots on the ground in Ukraine.

Leaders from the UK, France, Germany and eight other European countries issued a joint statement that troops from a “coalition of the willing” could “help with the regeneration of Ukraine’s forces, in securing Ukraine’s skies, and in ensuring maritime security, including through conducting operations within its territory.”

However, they did not suggesting these actions would serve as assurances equivalent to NATO's Article 5. In any case, there is little sign that Russia is near agreeing to the type of package being negotiated between Washington and Kyiv.

Kremlin Response and Territorial Dispute

On Tuesday, the Kremlin said it had not seen the details of the plans for security guarantees. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergey Ryabkov, asserted that the country would never accept troops from Nato countries operating in Ukraine “under any circumstances.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian negotiators and their American counterparts remains the issue of land. One proposal centers on Ukraine ceding the parts of the Donbas region it still holds, while Ukraine prefers to maintain the current front lines. “We are discussing the territorial issue. As is known, it is a central problem. At this point, there is no agreement on it yet,” Zelenskyy remarked after the Berlin talks.

The US negotiation team, led by two senior advisors, has suggested a middle-ground proposal. This framework would see Ukraine pull back, but Russia would not move forward, with the demilitarised area becoming “an open economic area.” Russia has indicated it could use police and national guard units rather than the army in such an area, implying it would still seek to control the territory.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘free economic zone’ does not mean controlled by Moscow. Neither de jure nor de facto do we accept the Donbas region – its temporarily occupied part – as Russian. Absolutely,” said Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Possible Scenarios

The way ahead is uncertain how the two sides will resolve the land question. Zelenskyy has previously suggested that a compromise solution such as a special economic area could be theoretically possible if the Ukrainian people approved it in a national vote. The major impediment is expected to arise when the proposals are put to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has shown no indication he is willing to compromise on his war aims.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will face exactly what we are experiencing on our flight right now – instability,” said the president, making the statement after his plane departed from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will apply sanctions pressure and supply additional armaments if he rejects everything. In my view, that would be a fair request from Ukraine to the United States,” he added.